Good Morning Happy Monday!! Day 24 of the government shutdown continues and has surpassed the longest in history which was previously 21days. The shutdown is starting to take a toll on the economy and things like the TSA workers working without pay. This week can be volatile based on reports and businesses performance versus expectations. Citigroup kicked off earnings this morning, reporting weaker than expected revenue, which dragged down the entire financial sector and overall Stock market. Additionally, Chine reported much weaker trade numbers than expected, reinforcing the tone that a global growth slowdown is upon us. Because the economy is interconnected, this too is pressuring our Stock market lower. Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels, while the 10-year Treasury Note Yield has seen a “Death Cross” form. Which can portend lower yields ahead. Mortgage Bonds are still hovering just above support at 101.856. This level has held the last several times tested and has proven to be a solid floor. The 10-year is trading at 2.69%, in a very wide range between support at 2.57% and overhead resistance at the 25-day moving average. A “Death Cross” has formed, which is a pattern that occurs when the 50-day Moving Average crosses downward over the 200-day Moving Average. This patter can lead to lower yields ahead. Because stocks are weaker and Bonds are trading above support. Hope everyone has an awesome week!!.
Good Afternoon, Market Update: Stocks are pointed higher in the pre-market for the 4th straight day, while Mortgage Bonds are lower, testing support once again. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage application volume increased a whopping 23.5% from the previous week. The last few weeks we were going to take with a grain of salt, as MBA does a terrible job of adjusting the numbers for the end of the year and applications always fall sharply before the New Year and rise sharply after. Applications to purchase a home were up 17% after falling 15% the last three weeks. We will still have to watch how this reports smoothes out, as we could be seeing some exaggeration to the upside with the adjustments. The Refinance share of mortgage activity increased from 43.5% to 45.8% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 8.4% from 7.9% of applications. The average 30-year mortgage decreased from 4.84% to 4.74%, which is approximately 0.5% higher than this time last year. Mortgage Bonds have broken under support at 101.856, which is significant. This level has been holding the last several times tested. It’s still early, but if this break is confirmed. Bonds have room to move lower until reaching the 25 and 200-day Moving Averages. Stocks are continuing their rally, which will pressure Bonds. And if the Fed Minutes are negative for Bonds as they have been , they too will pressure Bonds lower. Hope everyone has an awesome and productive day!!
Morning Market Update: Stocks are higher and Mortgage Bonds are lower and after a blockbuster Jobs Report was released. Today The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 312,000 jobs created in the month of December, which was much stronger than the 180,000 expected. There was also 58,000 in positive revisions to the previous two reports- October was revised higher by 37,000 from 237,000 to 274,000, while November was revised higher by 21,000 from 155,000 to 176,000. The 3-month average now stands at a very strong 254,000. The Unemployment Rate dropped increased from 3.7% to 3.9%. There are two different surveys within the Jobs Report- The Business Survey, where the headline jobs figure is derived from , and the Household Survey, where the Unemployment Rate comes from. There is a job creation component within the Household Survey, which is extremely volatile. The Household Survey showed that there were only 142,000 jobs created, while at the same time the labor force increased by 419,000. Since there were significantly more workers that entered the labor force vs. jobs gains, the unemployment rate moved higher. The labor force participation rate was rose from 62.9% and 63.1%. The all in U6 Unemployment Rate, which includes total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, remained stable at 7.6%. Average Hourly earnings were up 0.4% from the previous month and 3.2% year over year, which was a slight increase from 3.1%. Average Weekly hours worked increased a bit, likely due to the holidays, which caused earnings rose from 2.7 to 3.2%. Mortgage Bonds are now trading in the middle of a wide range between support at 101.856 and overhead resistance at 102.618. Price swings and fluctuations can occur in these wide ranges, so we have to be on guard. Looking at the 10-year, yields are bouncing higher from 2.57% and are now at 2.63%. There is significant room for yields to move higher until reaching 2.80%. Hope everyone has an awesome day
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Good Morning! Happy New Year Everyone! Stocks are lower, largely in part to Apple, which is down approximately 9% and is responsible for over 100 DOW points. Apple sold off after they issued a warning on future performance. Sales in China are down significantly as it seems other markets are having a hard time absorbing the more expensive phones. Additionally, there are rumors that Apple phones may not be ready for 5G, which is expected to be released in 2019. Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher, after shrugging off a very strong ADP Employment Report. ADP was strong and would point to a strong Jobs Report. Applications to purchase a home were down 7.6% and are now down 6.0% from this time last year. Refinances are down 12.0% and they are now down 35% from this time last year. Mortgage Bonds have broken above Fibonacci resistance at 101.856 and 102, but are not in overbought territory. Additionally, the 10-year has a long way to run higher (worse ) should we get an unfriendly figure for Bonds tomorrow. Wishing everyone a very awesome and happy New Years.
Another one closed!! @mrrealty818 it always a pleasure working with my good friend! Best way to end year!!
Thank GOD it’s Friday.. what a way to start the morning another Zillow review my clients are awesome. Thank you 🙏
It’s always a pleasure working with my awesome friend. Thank you for putting your trust in me. We have another one closing on the 31st again. Bigger things in 2019!! Congrats Noro & Anna Jan. Can’t wait til the next project!! Let’s Work! @mrrealty818
Good Morning, Stocks are starting the day higher, trying to rebound from Mondays rough trading session. Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower, but still above their 200-day Moving Average, which has acted as solid floor the last several times tested. In Economic news the Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released, which gives us an important, yet slightly dated, read on appreciation. Case Shiller has a few indexes, two of which we have to pay most attention to. The National index and the 20-city index. The National Index, which covers all nine U.S. Census divisions, reported a 0.1% monthly gain and 5.5% annual gain in October. The year over year reading was unchanged from September. The 20-city Index shower that home prices were flat month over month and moderated slightly from 5.1% to 5% on a year over year basis. We see slowing appreciation gains on a year over year basis, but these are still very healthy and meaningful levels. Remember that there is a big difference between slowing appreciation gains and negative appreciation. Hope Everyone has an awesome day,
GOD Bless Everyone
Merry Christmas! I hope you have a wonderful holiday with your family. Stocks are pointed lower in the pre-market, while Mortgage Bonds are higher so far this morning. It’s a shortened holiday trading session, with the Stock market closing at 1pm ET and the Bond Market closing at 2pm ET. With that being said, volatility may be at a premium, as volumes will be extremely light and big trades can move the market more than usual. Both the Stock and Bond markets will be closed tomorrow in observation of the Christmas Holiday. Out next update will be released on Wednesday. Mortgage bonds are moving slightly higher testing the 200-day Moving Average on Thursday. There is room for Bonds to improve until reaching Fibonacci Resistance at 101.856. The direction in Stocks will likely determined whether Bonds can move higher to test the next ceiling. On Friday, The S&P 500 closed just above important support at 2411…but based on pre-market trading. Its set to open just under 2400. If this remains true, the selling could be exacerbated, with the next floor all the way down at 2286. One thing to look out for is that the Stock Market is oversold and may be ripe for a bounce higher. We have seen this picture before where Stocks start the day lower and the gain some traction. The 10-year is trading at 2.77%, just above tough support at 2.76%. The last several times this level was tested, yields move higher. Be on the guard for a potential reversal in stocks.