Depression over SE BOB
The WML over SE BOB and adjoining Equatorial waters intensified into a depression today forenoon.Still models are not clear about the landfalll location and rainfall intensity as the state is near stationary from yesterday. Once it starts its journey in a NW track we would clearly know.
Why are models struggling?
It is because of a western disturbance in the mid latitude near Jammu and Kashmir.
Western disturbances are nothing but trough of lows that occur in the mid latitude jet stream that pass nearly 5km above mean sea level. So when these dip in latitude,the ridge and WD interaction happens and the system takes a north route.So currently as this disturbance is there,models are taking it north. But it is expected to move away in a couple of days and we can get clarity.
As of now nothing is clear in the models, but i have a hope that this system will surely give good Rains for North TN and Chennai which are currently reeling under big deficit. So let's hope for the best.